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The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ECB signals it is on the road to normal
The ECB cut its key policy rates by 25bp, taking the deposit rate to 3%. The move was widely expected and priced in by financial markets. The communication around the rate cut suggests that the Governing Council is comfortable with the idea of bringing policy rates back to neutral levels, if its outlook continues to be confirmed.
Economic Outlook 2025 - Webinar - The year of the tariff
Video of ABN AMRO's Group Economics webinar on the economic outlook for 2025.
Global manufacturing shows further improvement
Global manufacturing PMI rises back to ‘neutral’. EM outperformance continues, Demand picks up (also driven by EMs), and global excess supply continues. Subcomponents for input and output prices up, but remain far below 2021/22 peaks.
Macro Watch - Tight labour market dampens economic growth potential
The active labour force has been growing steadily, but too slowly to meet all labour demand. Many vacancies are outstanding and business owners indicate in surveys that lack of staff is their biggest obstacle. The tightness in the labour market will continue for the time being, as the pool of people who can find work is small. The number of unemployed is low, the schedules of part-time workers who say they would like to work more hours do not necessarily match employers' work schedules, and those who are in the labour force but not in paid employment often have other commitments, such as study or informal care, or are kept from work by illness. The labour market is also at risk of remaining tight in the longer term due to an ageing population. With an increasingly weak increase in labour supply, the economy will grow more slowly and GDP growth per capita will weaken. This leaves less room to share the pain of social change. Where some citizens gain from a policy adjustment, others lose out. This will make it more difficult to implement reforms in the future.
NL Update - Dutch manufacturing industry cools down further
The Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI fell further, from 47.0 to 46.6 in November. Inventories of purchased materials in particular declined, while production and the number of new orders fell steadily.
Eurozone services inflation is losing momentum. Will it continue?
Headline inflation ticks higher but core inflation surprises to the downside
The Netherlands - Domestic strength to face turbulent times
The economy has showed robust growth over the past year; growth is expected to continue in 2025. But with a precarious external environment, growth will be domestically driven. Unemployment will increase slightly, but the tight labour market remains a constraining factor. Inflation still at 2.5% in 2026, higher than the eurozone, creating risks to competitiveness.
Global Outlook 2025 - The year of the tariff
The return of president Trump is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025. China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit, leading to a sharp slowdown later in the year. Tariffs threaten the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China, while in the US, deregulation and tax cuts will help blunt the real income shock from tariff rises. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below the 2% target in the eurozone. All of this is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with slower and fewer Fed rate cuts, and the ECB deposit rate falling to 1%. This will push the euro to parity vs the dollar in the course of 2025.
The week ahead - 25 - 29 November 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.