Our research

China - The world alone is not enough

GDP growth in 2026 supported by spillovers from global AI boom, but imbalances have worsened. Ongoing targeted, piecemeal support expected to safeguard GDP growth in 2027. The Six Networks scheme should contribute to a turnaround in investment. Despite hiccups, we do not expect trade relations with US/EU to spiral out of control next year. We expect annual real GDP growth to remain around 4.5% in 2027 and 2028.

US - The energy shock fades, the AI boom doesn’t

Investment will keep driving growth in 2027, consumers keep up as falling inflation lifts real incomes. The energy shocks will fade without second round effects, the AI build-out keeps core inflation elevated. After one last hike in December, the Fed holds through most of 2027 before easing late in the year

Germany - Don’t rest on the economic recovery

The current economic recovery will continue in 2027, primarily due to fiscal impulses in the pipeline. Looking ahead, growth prospects are in line with the potential growth rate of around 0.3 percent. Inflation will remain an ongoing concern in 2027, but its impact will diminish as the year progresses.

The Netherlands - Resilient, but not immune

Solid foundations, the unique position in the semi-conductor supply chain and government spending have helped the Dutch economy withstand another energy shock. Growth is expected to moderate in 2027–28 as higher interest rates and inflation weigh on demand, despite continued support from exports. Inflation will remain persistent, while supply bottlenecks limit the economy’s growth potential.

Eurozone - Resilient, but bruised… alors, encore?

The eurozone weathered another turbulent year in 2026, with the German fiscal expansion and resilient consumers offsetting the latest energy shock, and intense external competitive pressures. Growth to slow in 2027 on tighter fiscal and monetary policy and falling employment, but eurozone resilience should live to fight another year. The ECB’s new president could face some challenging judgement calls next year, not least over France. We expect a pivot from rate hikes to cuts as inflationary pressure eases and growth slows.

Global Outlook - How resilient is resilience?

In this publication we present our economic outlook for the year ahead, while also adding our forecasts for 2028 for the first time. The global economy has expanded robustly despite many shocks over the past few years. We will explain why we think the economic expansion will continue, though we could once see more divergence between the US and the rest of the world, with Europe in particular falling behind. In addition, we explore a number of risks hanging over the global economy, which could potentially challenge the global economy’s remarkable record of resilience.

Global climate policy after the US withdrawal: Europe braces for a warmer world

After taking office in January 2025, the Trump administration withdrew from the Paris Agreement and began dismantling federal climate policies. The recently published UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 (see here) provides an annual assessment of the gap between current climate commitments and the emission reductions needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. This year’s report concludes that an overshoot of 1.5°C is now unavoidable, shifting the focus towards limiting its magnitude and duration and ultimately bringing global warming back to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Against this backdrop, climate adaptation has become increasingly important. In this research note, we examine how GHG emissions have evolved in the US and other major economies since the US withdrawal. We then assess how climate policies and ambitions have changed across major countries and regions, as reflected in their NDCs. Finally, we examine the European Commission’s recently published EU Framework for Climate Resilience, which reflects the growing recognition that Europe needs to prepare for a warmer world even as efforts to curb emissions continue.

We need to talk about France

Eurozone inflation: Another wave, but not a repeat of 2022

Top of Mind - AI and the neutral rate: Live and let rise

Where policy rates settle in the long run, and where long-term yields trade, depends on the real neutral rate of interest, r*. AI is now putting upward pressure on it from two sides. The build-out of data centres, chips and power is the largest investment boom in decades, and the productivity gains it promises could change how fast the economy grows. This note asks what both do to r*, in the US and the euro area.