The Week Ahead - 28 April - 2 May 2025
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US – Growth is likely to slow sharply, with possibly even a contraction in GDP – as signalled by the Atlanta Fed tracker. Underlying demand should remain solid, but headline GDP is likely to be weighed heavily by a jump in imports, as businesses seek to get ahead of new import tariffs.
Eurozone – Q1 GDP is particularly uncertain due to possible frontloading of exports to the US ahead of tariffs. Our base case foresees a pickup to 0.3% q/q, from 0.2% in Q4. Incoming activity data suggests a solid start to the year across industry, construction and services. But the ultimate outcome could be significantly impacted by frontloading. Data to February suggests some evidence of frontloading, though it remains to be seen if this continued through the rest of the quarter. This also suggests possible big revisions in the second and third estimates of GDP. Big picture, the economy is expected to slow this year on the back of US tariffs.
The Netherlands – Growth for Q1 is expected to reach 0.5% q/q, mainly driven by spending from both the government and households. Investment growth will likely be negative after an exceptionally strong Q4, particularly in transport, surging late last year in anticipation of altered tax regulations in 2025. However, the negative impact of subdued investments is likely counterbalanced by a positive contribution of inventories, rebounding from their drop in Q4.
The flash CPI estimate for April is expected to come in at 3.8% y/y. The different timing of Easter likely causes services inflation to pick up. Generally, services inflation is still elevated on the back of wage growth and rent indexation. Food and industrial good prices will also continue to add to the inflation rate. On the other hand, energy prices likely continue to exert downward pressure.
China – After improvements seen in recent months, the April manufacturing PMIs (from NBS and Caixin) are expected to drop back to (close to) the neutral mark separating expansion from contraction. That’s entirely driven by the anticipated export shock to the US following the sharp stepping up of bilateral import tariffs, although exemptions (consumer electronics, car parts), trade circumvention/diversification and more government support will soften the blow – see . The official non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be quite stable above the 50 mark; Caixin’s services PMI will we published on May 6th.
Japan – We expect the Bank of Japan to keep its target rate on hold at 0.50% on 1 May, in line with consensus, as the BoJ is not in a hurry to raise rates given the more uncertain external environment due to US tariff policy. Going forward, we expect the BoJ to continue with a very gradual hiking path (next hike pencilled in for Q3), contingent on more evidence of underlying inflation settling around the 2% target.