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The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Economic Outlook 2025 - Webinar - The year of the tariff
Video of ABN AMRO's Group Economics webinar on the economic outlook for 2025.
The week ahead - 9 - 13 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global manufacturing shows further improvement
Global manufacturing PMI rises back to ‘neutral’. EM outperformance continues, Demand picks up (also driven by EMs), and global excess supply continues. Subcomponents for input and output prices up, but remain far below 2021/22 peaks.
The week ahead - 2 - 6 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
US Watch – Trade Wars Episode I: The phantom tariff
• President Elect Trump proposed a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada to halt migrant and drug flows. China would get 10% because they do not do enough to halt export of raw materials for drug production. The tariff is milder than the universal tariff campaign proposal, but there is no reason it would replace it. The tariffs would hit Mexico and Canada hard.
US - A bull entered the China shop
The US economy showed remarkable resilience in the face of very restrictive rates. It is however increasingly showing cracks, with weakening consumption and labour market. Uncertainty about future policy is large, as is the range of potential outcomes.
Global Outlook 2025 - The year of the tariff
The return of president Trump is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025. China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit, leading to a sharp slowdown later in the year. Tariffs threaten the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China, while in the US, deregulation and tax cuts will help blunt the real income shock from tariff rises. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below the 2% target in the eurozone. All of this is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with slower and fewer Fed rate cuts, and the ECB deposit rate falling to 1%. This will push the euro to parity vs the dollar in the course of 2025.
The week ahead - 25 - 29 November 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Key views Global Outlook 2025
The return of president Trump to the White House is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025. China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit. Global trade and growth will initially benefit from a frontloading ahead of the tariff rises, before slowing sharply later in 2025. Against this backdrop, domestic demand is recovering in the eurozone and China, helped by falling interest rates and targeted fiscal measures in China, while in the US, deregulation and tax cuts will help blunt the real income shock from tariff rises. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below target in the eurozone. All of this is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with slower and fewer Fed rate cuts, and the ECB deposit rate ultimately falling to 1%. This is expected to push the euro towards parity against the dollar in the course of 2025.