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The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Economic Outlook 2025 - Webinar - The year of the tariff
Video of ABN AMRO's Group Economics webinar on the economic outlook for 2025.
The week ahead - 9 - 13 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global manufacturing shows further improvement
Global manufacturing PMI rises back to ‘neutral’. EM outperformance continues, Demand picks up (also driven by EMs), and global excess supply continues. Subcomponents for input and output prices up, but remain far below 2021/22 peaks.
China - Signs of life from the November PMIs
China Macro: November manufacturing PMIs show improvements on the demand side. Services PMIs come down again. Improving momentum adds to resilience as China prepares for a new tariff war with the US.
Gas Market Monitor - Market remains watchful for supply uncertainty
European TTF prices have been heading upwards due to adverse weather conditions, supply disruptions from Russia, unclarity about the future of transit agreement through Ukraine, and escalations in the Ukrainian war. Storage withdrawal rate has been higher than average, inducing high uncertainty and strong volatility.
The week ahead - 2 - 6 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Oil market update - Market prospects in 2025
OPEC+ has once again postponed its plan for the revival of its production until January. The outlook for next year is widely seen to be negative with the main international agencies expecting a surplus even if OPEC+ does not step up production as supply additions outpace demand growth. Under the new Trump administration, we expect an increase in oil supply and further slowdown in demand following the proposed reduction in taxes and protective trade measures. We expect significant downside for oil prices over the next year. In the first half of the year, frontloading in demand starts to bring the market into better balance reducing some pressure on prices, though we expect Brent to head towards USD 60 by year end.
Special - We need to talk about China…
(I) Reliance on China might be the least-worst of all options by Sandra Phlippen. (II) China’s growth impact on Europe – Supply hits even more than demand by Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Global Outlook 2025 - The year of the tariff
The return of president Trump is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025. China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit, leading to a sharp slowdown later in the year. Tariffs threaten the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China, while in the US, deregulation and tax cuts will help blunt the real income shock from tariff rises. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below the 2% target in the eurozone. All of this is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with slower and fewer Fed rate cuts, and the ECB deposit rate falling to 1%. This will push the euro to parity vs the dollar in the course of 2025.