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The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
ECB signals it is on the road to normal
The ECB cut its key policy rates by 25bp, taking the deposit rate to 3%. The move was widely expected and priced in by financial markets. The communication around the rate cut suggests that the Governing Council is comfortable with the idea of bringing policy rates back to neutral levels, if its outlook continues to be confirmed.
Economic Outlook 2025 - Webinar - The year of the tariff
Video of ABN AMRO's Group Economics webinar on the economic outlook for 2025.
The week ahead - 9 - 13 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global manufacturing shows further improvement
Global manufacturing PMI rises back to ‘neutral’. EM outperformance continues, Demand picks up (also driven by EMs), and global excess supply continues. Subcomponents for input and output prices up, but remain far below 2021/22 peaks.
Euro Rates Watch - France political turmoil: Navigating Potential Collapse French Government
France is currently facing a significant political crisis that threatens the stability of its government and the approval of the 2025 Budget. As negotiations intensify, the far-right opposition, led by Marine Le Pen, has expressed willingness to support a no-confidence vote against the government if certain budgetary demands are not met. This precarious political landscape has heightened concerns about the country's fiscal outlook, with the likelihood of the public deficit exceeding the previously announced 5% deficit for 2025. The ongoing turmoil suggests that even if immediate government collapse is avoided, the French political environment will likely remain volatile, impacting economic growth and market confidence.
Eurozone services inflation is losing momentum. Will it continue?
Headline inflation ticks higher but core inflation surprises to the downside
The week ahead - 2 - 6 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Germany - Elections and Trump tariffs shape the path ahead
The economy is expected to return to sluggish growth, expanding by 0.7% in 25 and 0.8% in 26. Rising real incomes and falling interest rates mean growth will be driven by domestic demand. Trump tariffs the biggest downside risk: they are likely to hit German exports from H2 2025 onwards. Disinflationary trend to continue, but high wage growth is keeping core inflation elevated. With elections on 23 February, a new government may not be in place before mid-2025. Depending on the election outcome, a step up in fiscal spending is likely given the CDU’s turn.
Eurozone - Trump tariffs push ECB beyond neutral
The recovery is continuing for now, with growth to average 0.8% in 2024, and 1.2% in 2025, but the economy is likely to slow later in 2025 on new US tariffs, to 0.1-0.2% q/q. Domestic demand increasingly picking up the growth baton; consumers benefit from real income gains. Labour demand in the eurozone is softening, but the overall labour market remains resilient. The eurozone fiscal stance is neutral in 2025, but France faces significant fiscal tightening. Disinflation remains on track; tariffs lead to inflation persistently below target inflation in 2026. This prompts the ECB to extend its rate cut cycle to a low of 1% in 2026.