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The Week Ahead - 16 - 20 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Economic Outlook 2025 - Webinar - The year of the tariff
Video of ABN AMRO's Group Economics webinar on the economic outlook for 2025.
The week ahead - 9 - 13 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Global manufacturing shows further improvement
Global manufacturing PMI rises back to ‘neutral’. EM outperformance continues, Demand picks up (also driven by EMs), and global excess supply continues. Subcomponents for input and output prices up, but remain far below 2021/22 peaks.
China - Signs of life from the November PMIs
China Macro: November manufacturing PMIs show improvements on the demand side. Services PMIs come down again. Improving momentum adds to resilience as China prepares for a new tariff war with the US.
The week ahead - 2 - 6 December 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
China - That 2018 (tariff) feeling – What’s different in 2025?
Just as growth momentum is showing some signs of recovery as we near the end of 2024 , an expected rise in US tariffs under Trump 2.0 will create more drags to GDP growth in 2025. We assume a bigger tariff shock compared to 2018-19, with build-up to an average rate of 45%. But China is now less dependent on the US, has developed a playbook to react, and will add stimulus. We expect annual growth to slow from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.3% (was 4.5%) in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.
Special - We need to talk about China…
(I) Reliance on China might be the least-worst of all options by Sandra Phlippen. (II) China’s growth impact on Europe – Supply hits even more than demand by Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Global Outlook 2025 - The year of the tariff
The return of president Trump is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025. China will bear the brunt, but Europe will also be hit, leading to a sharp slowdown later in the year. Tariffs threaten the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China, while in the US, deregulation and tax cuts will help blunt the real income shock from tariff rises. Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate, but to fall below the 2% target in the eurozone. All of this is likely to drive a divergence in Fed & ECB policy, with slower and fewer Fed rate cuts, and the ECB deposit rate falling to 1%. This will push the euro to parity vs the dollar in the course of 2025.
The week ahead - 25 - 29 November 2024
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.